Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Faber, Faber, Faber

Gold to $3,000? Well, you have to ask Mr Bernanke

video

  • March 9, stocks to take off for a 6-month rally.
  • Stay humble; sometimes the call is easy.
  • We might have seen a major low. The real question: will this low be altered in real terms (against Gold).
  • Gold to $3,000? Well, you have to ask Mr Bernanke.
  • Fed chairman should not disregard excessive leverage, excessive credit growth, etc.
  • Most economists disregard excessive leverage and excessive credit growth, except John Taylor [1] and Robert Shiller [2].
  • Paul Krugman [3] recently published a 6,000-word article criticising how the other economists got it so wrong but never mentioned excessive leverage or excessive credit growth. Krugman should rename the article to "How did I get it so Wrong".
  • Faber mentioned David Tice. On 22 September, Tice [4] said the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will fall below 400 within 18 months, a level it hasn’t reached since 1992 and a 62 percent plunge from yesterday’s close.
  • You can't solve a debt problem with even larger debt, though you can postpone the problem. The ultimate crisis will happen one day.
  • The next crisis will bring down the entire capitalistic system.
  • They can't unravel the fiscal deficit; monetisation will have to go on.
  • Foreign purchases of US government debt has slowed down, or the Dollar will have gone up. Dollar weakness is a symptom of inflation in the system.
  • Indian central bank, probably the only central bank Faber has respect for.
  • The emerging world is no longer the poor cousin of the rich countries; they are now an economic power.
  • Thailand is probably the cheapest. India and Vietnam are very attractive. Cambodia too on a smaller scale.
  • Cash and government bonds may just be the worst investment over the long run.
  • Oil and drugs companies are not expensive.
  • One day the government will fail.
  • S&P 500: Expect a lot of volatility; 1,250 ~ 800.

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References:
  1. John B. Taylor
  2. Robert Shiller
  3. Paul Krugman
  4. Stocks Rally Will End Within Six Months, Tice Says (Update2)
  5. Inflation to Cause Stocks to Outperform Cash, Bonds, Faber Says

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