Thursday, July 31, 2008

Rogers: Fannie & Freddie, Oil, China

“If you are blaming all this on short sellers, then... you should be... have another job.”

-- Jim Rogers

Points expressed by Rogers in the above video:

  • Fannie and Freddie should not be bailed out.
  • The US has incurred a $5 trillion of national debt over the last 230 years or so. Within just one weekend alone, Paulson doubled that amount!
  • Rogers is still short on Financials.
  • The bailout will make the recession worse and bring on more inflation.
  • “If you are blaming all this on short sellers, then... you should be... have another job.”
  • The surprise will be how high Crude Oil will go and how high Crude Oil will stay. A 50% correction is possible, but not the end of the secular bull market.
  • Rogers has been buying airlines.
  • Rogers plans to buy Taiwan and China when there's a selling climax.

Official response from bhc investment:

  • Fannie and Freddie had been bailed out because Paulson had to give them a federal backing to prevent Asian and European holders of US agency debt from selling, which amounts more than $2 trillion. However, the bailout is simply, well, as we at bhc investment have been predicting all along, MONEY PRINTING [5, 6]; they just printed another $5 trillion! The Fed can print, but they will have no control over where the newly printed money will go... Inflation will be exported to the rest of the world. Those who welcome the bailout of Fannie and Freddie surely do not understand basic economics.
  • Rogers is saying the short sellers are made scapegoats, just like the media, politicians, and regulators have been BRAINWASHING the public into thinking speculators driving up prices of commodities. We at bhc investment have consistently and repeatedly said that is not the case [1, 2, 8, 9]. The biggest speculator in Crude Oil was SemGroup [3], which netted a short position, NOT long! Those who are playing the blame game on the scapegoat speculators don't know a thing about financial markets.
  • Rogers is giving his view on Crude Oil that's consistent with our official position: the secular bull market is NOT over [4].
  • Rogers intends to buy Taiwan and China. Mark Mobius [7] has recently expressed a similar opinion and Mobius intends to buy China as well. We at bhc investment are unlikely to get back into Asia anytime soon. We feel there's still some homework we need to do [10, 11, 12].
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References:

  1. Humble Suggestions, Part IV
  2. Humble Suggestions, Part V
  3. $3.2 Billion Loss to Shorting Crude!
  4. Quick Update
  5. To von
  6. To Zoe_H
  7. Mobius Sees `Good Bargains' in China, India Stocks (Update2)
  8. Boone is Now with Boon, Part III
  9. Boone is Now with Boon, Part IV
  10. Timing the Chinese Bubble, Part I
  11. Timing the Chinese Bubble, Part II
  12. Timing the Chinese Bubble, Part III

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