Friday, July 04, 2008

Boon vs Glenn Neely

NS: I guess I have something for you guys again. But before I get into it, allow me to introduce Glenn Neely, who is the founder of NEoWave Institute [1]. He's the guy behind the NEoWave principle, which he claims to be better than Elliott Wave. Here's how Neely explains it [2]:

The three core elements of Elliott Wave are the Fibonacci number series, pattern recognition and the Golden ratio (.618). All three elements have a "forecasting" or "anticipatory" aspect, where the analyst is expecting the market to move up or down a certain number of "waves" (a concept not defined in any literature until Mastering Elliott Wave), adhere to a certain design and have specific relationships.

The three core elements of NEoWave are Logic (e.g., a strong correction must yield a powerful move), self-defining price/time Limits (e.g., a smaller degree pattern cannot take more time and price than a larger degree pattern) AND Self-Confirmation (i.e., the market's post-pattern behavior determines whether your prior structural analysis was correct). All three NEoWave elements have a "back-casting" or "reactionary" aspect, where the analyst is making sure (after the fact) a pattern did not take too much or too little time, that it was not too complex or too simple AND that post-pattern price action achieved the minimum movement required to confirm the prior pattern.

For example, in 1988 (for those who remember), I was one of the only bullish analysts in the world. Among orthodox Elliott Wave practitioners, who were extremely bearish (and remained that way for most of the last 20 years!), I stood alone and was heavily ridiculed for my extremely bullish, long-term forecast. It was the LOGIC of NEoWave that allowed me to remain so adamantly and confidently bullish on the U.S. stock market (despite massive public condemnation) and even in the face of negative national and international news.

It was NEoWave that allowed me to turn adamantly bearish on the U.S. stock market near the highs of 2000 and then, two years later, turn bullish again just six months after the 2002 low. Finally, in January of 2008 - once again, despite strong opposition - I turn adamantly bearish on the U.S. stock market. It was NEoWave that gave me the courage to announce to the world, in mid January 2008, that a new bear market began and that there was virtually nothing that could be done to stop the downward spiral of the U.S. stock market for the next 4-6 years!

In its orthodox form, Elliott Wave never allows for such dogmatic forecasts. To the contrary, Elliott Wave typically allows for multiple, completely contradictory scenarios. If you have simultaneously bullish and bearish counts it is of little value for trading.

In conclusion, the same way calculus elevated mathematics beyond algebra and trigonometry, the logical, self-defining limits and self-confirming aspects of NEoWave raise the field of wave analysis (and technical analysis in general) above the realm of opinion and hearsay and closer to the realm of science and fact.

As you might have expected, Glenn Neely has recently made a call that is against the official position of bhc investment.

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References:

  1. NEoWave Institute
  2. What makes NEoWave better than Elliott Wave?

4 comments:

wu yun said...

Dear Boon,

Thank you for your prompt reply.

I am fervently reading up all your articles and I must say that they really inspire me to find that one is able to trade with such consistent and amazing return streak.

Thank you for sharing them with us. At the same time, I am wondering whether are you able to advise me as to which books should I read if I were to start trading based on technicals or any other books that can help me improve as a trader ?.

Much appreciated.

cheers

Kris said...

It is "highly" that Glenn Neely will be wrong simply he states a very a too long distance into the future..no one can be "certainly" sure what will happen 2-4 years down the road..

Boon will never do some very far in the future projections..

Anything can happen, like DJIA's hard disk got hanged like Bursa..lol

Opine said...

I think the FED will not raise the funds rate this year, if they do move it will be downwards.

The data of what's coming is just astounding. It's a heads they win and tails you're going to lose scenario.

Where will funds take flight? One thing is for sure, smart money won't be in equities. They may move into bonds though despite the dismal returns there. Don't see commodities letting up although a correction in crude is surely due, but geopolitical and demand issues may prevent even that.
I predicted that crude would be 150 at year's end, looks like i may be wrong, it may get there sooner.
My bet is still on precious metals.

Interesting times.

Nice articles, thank you.

Boon said...

wu yun,

-- I have replied you in a post.

kris,

-- Neely is not stating something too far ahead. He's making a deflationary case, which is fundamentally in contrary to what I believe in.