After yesterday's roaring start of a new Quarter on Wall Street, we are seeing optimism returning -- just like what I have been anticipating since last week (see Dow: Further Countertrend). I would like to take this post to stress that this is still a countertrend move within a bear market in my view. A resumption of selling is likely to take place again once this countertrend is exhausted. It is such a kind of move that can flush out or trapping even the "professionals" in the markets who are now subscribed to the idea of a recession *after* it is already so apparent. I will post further guidance in due course.
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4 comments:
Boon,
U are right. Initially I thought the DJIA will pull back due to some profit taking. Anyhow, Future DJIA is so strong- green> 65 pts now.
The R now is seem at level of 12750. Do I am wrong? Once 12750 been breakout, then this line will be the temp. S for the DJIA. Isn't is like this?
Nothing can pay. Only able to say thanks. Thanks for sharing.
If the area around 12,700 to 12,800 can be broken, the market will naturally go higher, of course. But I won't capitalise on the support formed subsequently though. This is afterall a countertrend move within a bear market. There are experienced traders/investors who will start seeking for opportunities to go short again when a meaningful pivot starts to form above 12,800.
Still, the above is simply some wild guess, because there's no evidence at all that will allow me to plan for anything going forward.
Let the market run its course. The market will always form a structure leading to a natural progression of upcoming price actions. Is just a matter of whether we can make sense of it or not. Is not easy.
Boon,
Thanks for your reply.
If a experience trader short the DJIA at level above 12800, do you think the S level as I mention 12750 will breakdown?
Just wonder, how come plp say that the DJIA breakout the R level (as I guess 12750), it will become a temp S .. then it mean the this S is not a real S ? Is a false S? or I fail to sense it yet . .?
Thanks
von, you are asking me to speculate. I don't speculate. Any thing could happen.
Boon
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